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Gimnasia La Plata – Atlético Tucumán1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.54
Total xG
2.61
Atlético Tucumán
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +0.44 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Pedro Silva Torrejón not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Leandro Díaz not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage and form trend clearly favor Gimnasia La Plata, who are unbeaten in 5 matches
- The hosts' attack is currently scoring more frequently with 1.6 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.3
- The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 46% with 1.54 expected goals
Risks
- Atlético Tucumán presents a tough defense to break down, boasting 11 clean sheets with Luis Ingolotti
- The visitors are missing striker Leandro Díaz, which reduces their seasonal goal threat by 21%
- Light rain and humid conditions at 83% humidity could make clean passing difficult
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata46%
Draw29%
Atlético Tucumán25%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw75%
Atlético Tucumán or draw54%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 10 total)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-4-2 · Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 22 M. Melluso
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 5 J. Miramon
- 8 I. Fernández
- 17 L. Janson
- 19 R. Colazo
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 5 J. Fernández
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 32 L. Torres
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 18 M. Seoane
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 43 M. Ojeda
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 32 J. Infante
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 14 P. Canelo
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 34 M. Carrizo
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