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Belgrano – River Plate0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
1.05
Total xG
2.38
River Plate
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Nicolás Fernández on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Sebastián Driussi on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcos Acuña on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- Table: River Plate ranks 2nd in the league with 29 points from 16 matches, Belgrano 5th with 26 points from 16 matches
- Possession: River Plate averaged 70.8% possession in their last 5 matches, Belgrano 56% possession
- Head-to-head: River Plate won 2 of the 3 previous meetings against Belgrano, with 1 win for Belgrano
Risks
- Form: Belgrano remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Home/Away: Belgrano scored 1.4 goals per match at home in the league, River Plate 1.08 goals per match away in the league
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano28%
Draw31%
River Plate41%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw59%
River Plate or draw72%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 6 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 2 goals (82', 90+5')
- River Plate: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- River Plate: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · River Plate 4-1-3-2
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 9 L. Passerini
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 3 F. Ortega
- 6 A. Moreno
- 50 T. Andrada
- 23 T. Almada
- 26 T. Galván
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 18 L. Beltrán
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 22 N. Fernández
- 5 S. Longo
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 13 ?. Ocampo
- 15 R. Tulián
- 45 A. Falcón
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 21 M. Acuña
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 9 S. Driussi
- 15 F. Vera
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 20 G. González Apud
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