Match report →
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Aldosivi2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.07
Total xG
1.99
Aldosivi
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.75 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Rising form (0.6 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.04 | |
| 12% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concedes 1.07 goals per game at home in the league, Aldosivi 1.79 away per game
- Attack: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored 0.43 goals per game at home in the league, Aldosivi 0.64 away per game
Risks
- Form: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has 0 wins from their last 5 games, Aldosivi 2 wins from their last 5 games
- Shots: Aldosivi averaged 5.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3.0 per game
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto37%
Draw34%
Aldosivi29%
Double chance
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw71%
Aldosivi or draw63%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Aldosivi: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 5-3-2 · Aldosivi 4-4-1-1
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 38 L. Herrera
- 6 J. Antonini
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 10 T. González
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 17 G. Alanís
- 77 I. Hesar
- 22 M. Valiente
Aldosivi
- 23 I. Chicco
- 28 S. Moya
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 13 B. Cufré
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 21 M. Godoy
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 9 N. Cordero
Substitutes
- 8 S. Rosane
- 31 M. Valenti
- 12 F. Gualtieri
- 28 F. Cobos
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 3 L. Baños
- 27 J. Garro
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
- 20 B. Moyano
- 29 A. Vombergar
- 27 T. Fernández
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 24 F. Anso
- 18 A. Chávez
- 37 P. Argoytia
- 26 S. Sammarone
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →