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Atlético Tucumán – Rosario Central2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
0.85
Total xG
2.21
Rosario Central
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.57x league average) | +0.52 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Renzo Tesuri on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Laméndola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franco Ibarra not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Rosario Central is 4th with 28 points, while Atlético Tucumán is 13th with 14 points
- Head-to-head: Rosario Central won 3 of the 4 meetings, with Atlético Tucumán winning 0
- Possession: Rosario Central averaged 55.4% possession in their last 5 games, Atlético Tucumán 34.4%
Risks
- Away form: Rosario Central averaged 1.13 goals per match away in the league this season, compared to 1.5 at home
- Defense: Atlético Tucumán conceded 0.93 goals per match at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán22%
Draw31%
Rosario Central47%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw53%
Rosario Central or draw78%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
13%
0:0
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 10 total)
- Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Rosario Central: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Rosario Central: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 11 games)
- Rosario Central with Ángel Di María starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (21/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 32 J. Infante
- 19 L. Vega
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 14 P. Canelo
- 9 L. Díaz
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Substitutes
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 21 I. Galván
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 5 J. Fernández
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 10 F. Cervi
- 33 A. Soto
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 18 J. Fernández
- 38 D. Fernandez
- 24 J. Giménez
- 6 J. Komar
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 44 Paolo Giaccone
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
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