Match report →
Racing Club – Independiente1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.29
Total xG
2.40
Independiente
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Ulises Ortegoza on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marcos Rojo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Shots on target: Racing Club average 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games, Independiente 3.6
- Possession: Racing Club average 62.4% possession in recent matches, Independiente 50%
Risks
- Table: Independiente are 5th in the league with 24 points, Racing Club are 8th with 21 points
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings between the teams, Independiente have 1 win and there were 3 draws
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club39%
Draw31%
Independiente30%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw70%
Independiente or draw61%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
8%
0:1
8%
Lineups
Racing Club 4-2-3-1 · Independiente 4-3-3
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 38 M. Martínez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 20 G. Lodico
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 32 L. Díaz
- 17 T. Conechny
- 9 A. Martínez
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 36 S. Valdez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 5 N. Banegas
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 7 S. Montiel
- 6 L. Ávila
- 10 L. Cabral
Substitutes
- 18 L. Espino García
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 23 N. Colombo
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 33 L. Pérez
- 46 A. Tello
- 40 F. Fraga
- 2 M. Pérez
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 22 F. Zavala
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 29 L. Godoy
- 24 J. Palais
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 2 F. Calderón
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →