Match report →
Estudiantes – San Lorenzo1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.55
Total xG
2.27
San Lorenzo
0.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.59 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Adolfo Gaich on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fabricio Pérez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alexis Castro on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Santiago Núñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eric Meza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Alexis Cuello on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Estudiantes scores 1.53 goals per game at home in the league, San Lorenzo 0.4 per game away
- Table: Estudiantes ranks 1st in the league after 16 games, San Lorenzo is 7th
- Tactics: Estudiantes recorded 5.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, San Lorenzo 3.4 per game
Risks
- Form: Estudiantes recorded 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
- Defense: San Lorenzo conceded 0.73 goals per game in 15 league away matches
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes56%
Draw29%
San Lorenzo16%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw84%
San Lorenzo or draw44%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 goals (83', 90', 90+4')
- San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- San Lorenzo: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Lineups
Estudiantes 5-3-2 · San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2
Estudiantes
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 5 F. Rojo
- 24 T. Palacios
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 7 J. Sosa
- 32 C. Correa
- 27 L. Alario
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 32 E. Herrera
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 10 F. Gulli
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 38 F. Farías
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 9 G. Carrillo
- 19 A. Gaich
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 12 R. Borzone
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 10 T. Palacios
- 15 S. Arzamendia Duarte
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 4 S. Núñez
- 21 L. Piovi
- 27 M. Río
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 9 A. Cuello
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 30 O. Arias
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 62 G. Alassia
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 44 E. Salas
- 34 Máximo Simón Atrio
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