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Newell's Old Boys – Central Cordoba SdE2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newell's Old Boys
1.24
Total xG
2.34
Central Cordoba SdE
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newell's Old Boys | Central Cordoba SdE |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Newell's scores 1 goal per game at home in the league this season, Central Cordoba 0.43 goals per game away
- Form: Newell's has 1 win in their last 5 games, Central Cordoba is winless in their last 5 games
- Defense: Newell's allowed 0.50 xG per game in 5 games with xG data and conceded 0.6 goals per game
Risks
- Head-to-head: Central Cordoba won 2 of 4 head-to-head matches, Newell's 1 win
- Table: Central Cordoba is 13th with 16 points from 16 games, Newell's is 14th with 15 points
All probabilities
Result
Newell's Old Boys38%
Draw31%
Central Cordoba SdE31%
Double chance
Newell's Old Boys or draw69%
Central Cordoba SdE or draw62%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.24 : 1.10, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Central Cordoba SdE with Michael Santos starting: 0.9 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (19/7 games, last 28)
- Newell's Old Boys: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Newell's Old Boys 4-3-3 · Central Cordoba SdE 4-1-4-1
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 24 F. Escobar
- 26 R. Herrera
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 20 F. Guch
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
- 32 S. Solari
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 2 A. Maciel
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 22 M. Vera
- 28 L. Sequeira
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
Substitutes
- 27 L. Gómez
- 33 W. Núñez
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 28 J. Russo
- 23 N. Goitea
- 4 A. Montero
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
- 31 Francisco Sciarini
- 13 J. Gómez
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 9 L. Varaldo
- 21 F. Aguilar Mendoza
- 47 M. Cuitiño
- 32 N. Garrido
- 41 Enzo Tiziano Ramirez Suarez
- 43 Ignacio Santillán
- 44 Kevin Ibañez
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