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Defensa y Justicia – Instituto0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.51
Total xG
2.53
Instituto
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.59 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.38 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Giuliano Cerato not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defense: Defensa y Justicia conceded 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 matches
- Shots on target: Defensa y Justicia recorded 6 shots on target per match in recent games, Instituto 4.4 per match
- Home/Away: Defensa y Justicia conceded 0.93 goals per match at home in the league this season
Risks
- Attack: Instituto scored 2.6 goals per match in their last 5 matches
- Table: Instituto ranks 9th in the league this season with 21 points, Defensa y Justicia 10th with 19 points
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia47%
Draw29%
Instituto24%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw76%
Instituto or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Instituto: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Instituto: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 12 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Instituto: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
- Defensa y Justicia: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Instituto 3-4-3
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 26 J. Lucco
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 17 M. Tissera
- 10 A. Luna
Substitutes
- 20 J. Palavecino
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 10 A. Molinas
- 27 D. Blanco
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 45 T. Martínez
- 19 L. Sanseviero
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 23 J. Meli
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