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Independiente Rivadavia – Tigre2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
1.39
Total xG
2.50
Tigre
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.79x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.53 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Álex Arce not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Ríos on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Santiago López not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Independiente Rivadavia is 1st in the league with 34 points, Tigre is 10th with 20 points
- Form: Tigre lost their last 5 matches, Independiente Rivadavia won 2 of their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Independiente Rivadavia averages 2.13 goals per match at home in the league, Tigre 1 goal per match away
Risks
- Squad: Independiente Rivadavia without M. Salas, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Possession: Tigre averaged 52.8% possession in the last 5 matches, Independiente Rivadavia 43.4%
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia42%
Draw30%
Tigre28%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw72%
Tigre or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigre: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 3-4-2-1 · Tigre 4-4-2
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 42 S. Studer
- 14 L. Gómez
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 3 J. Elordi
- 80 M. Reali
- 10 M. Fernández
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 8 M. Garay
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 27 S. González
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 30 J. Domina
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Substitutes
- 13 A. Osella
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 11 G. Ríos
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 5 T. Bottari
- 28 A. Vigo
- 23 L. Díaz
- 16 N. Dubersarsky
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 32 J. Villalba
- 28 G. Martínez
- 4 V. Moreno
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 18 M. Fernández
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 23 G. Requena
- 26 L. Morales
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