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Vélez Sarsfield – Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.45
Total xG
2.35
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Vélez is 3rd in the league with 28 points from 16 games, Gimnasia is 11th with 19 points
- Home/Away: Vélez concedes 0.8 goals per game at home in the league, Gimnasia concedes 1.64 per game away
- Form: Vélez won 2 of its last 5 games, Gimnasia won 1 of its last 5 games
Risks
- Defence: Vélez conceded 1.4 goals per game in its last 5 matches, compared to 0.9 per game in the league this season
- Possession: Gimnasia averaged 54.2% possession over its last 5 games, compared to 49.8% possession for Vélez
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield48%
Draw30%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza22%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw78%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw52%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (17/8 games, last 28)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 37 J. Policella
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 30 E. Fernández
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 9 A. Módica
Substitutes
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 46 U. Piedrabuena
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 27 B. Armoa Núñez
- 33 O. Andrada
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 25 M. Úbeda James
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