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Huracán – Gimnasia La Plata1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.19
Total xG
2.35
Gimnasia La Plata
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2 goals/match) | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Maximiliano Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bautista Barros Schelotto not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Gimnasia ranks 6th with 26 points from 16 matches, while Huracán is 7th with 22 points from 16 matches
- Home/Away: Huracán averages 1.14 goals per match at home in the league this season, Gimnasia 1 goal per match away
Risks
- xG: Gimnasia generated 2.43 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per match
- Shots on target: Gimnasia averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent matches, Huracán 3.6 per match
All probabilities
Result
Huracán35%
Draw31%
Gimnasia La Plata34%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Huracán or draw66%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw65%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Huracán 4-2-3-1 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-4-2
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 8 L. Gil
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 8 I. Fernández
- 5 J. Miramon
- 18 M. Seoane
- 17 L. Janson
- 29 A. Auzmendi
- 32 L. Torres
Substitutes
- 4 F. Vera
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 33 B. Barticciotto
- 41 L. Mora
- 46 F. Martínez
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 33 P. Aguiar
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