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Deportivo Riestra – Unión Santa Fe1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
0.93
Total xG
2.03
Unión Santa Fe
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Unión Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.7 season average) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Lucas Menossi not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Malcorra on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Standings: Unión Santa Fe recorded 21 points in 16 league matches, Deportivo Riestra 11 points in 16 league matches
- Attack: Unión Santa Fe scored 1.43 goals per match in the league this season, Deportivo Riestra 0.5 goals per match
Risks
- Form: Unión Santa Fe lost 4 of its last 5 matches, Deportivo Riestra 2 of its last 5 matches
- Defence: Unión Santa Fe conceded 1.81 goals per match away in the league, Deportivo Riestra 0.71 goals per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra29%
Draw34%
Unión Santa Fe37%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw63%
Unión Santa Fe or draw71%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.93 : 1.10, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
11%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe: 82% of all goals in the second half (14 of 17, last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 17)
- Cristian Tarragona: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1 · Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 24 F. Miño
- 19 J. Randazzo
- 22 C. Paz
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 16 N. Watson
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 11 A. Díaz
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 22 B. Cuello
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 25 C. Tarragona
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 2 C. Quintana
- 40 G. Obredor
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 27 J. Goitía
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 9 G. Benegas
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 23 A. Solari
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 27 J. Koike
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 33 I. Isla
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