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Boca Juniors – Talleres Córdoba2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.68
Total xG
2.55
Talleres Córdoba
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Talleres Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.76 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Alan Velasco not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Enner Valencia on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Franco Cristaldo not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Boca Juniors have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Talleres Córdoba have 3 losses
- Home/Away: Boca Juniors concede 0.43 goals per home match in the league, Talleres Córdoba score 1 goal per away match
Risks
- Form: Boca Juniors have drawn 13 of their 29 league matches this season
- Table: Talleres Córdoba are 4th in the league with 26 points from 16 matches
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors55%
Draw27%
Talleres Córdoba18%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw82%
Talleres Córdoba or draw45%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Boca Juniors: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Boca Juniors: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1 · Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 32 A. Costa
- 3 L. Blanco
- 18 M. Delgado
- 6 R. Battaglia
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 10 G. Baroni
- 11 V. Depietri
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Substitutes
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 9 M. Giménez
- 27 M. Braida
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 42 F. Herrera
- 53 J. Ruíz
- 44 R. Bacidalupe
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 49 V. Dávila
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 15 J. Sforza
- 27 J. Gallard
- 26 M. Caceres
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
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