Match report →
Banfield – Argentinos Juniors0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.06
Total xG
2.30
Argentinos Juniors
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | +0.01 | |
| Hernán López Muñoz on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Argentinos Juniors sit 3rd with 29 points from 16 matches, Banfield 12th with 18 points from 16 matches
- Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors won all 4 previous meetings against Banfield
- Defense: Argentinos Juniors conceded 0.81 goals per match in the league this season, Banfield 1.32 per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Banfield scored 1.31 goals per match at home in the league this season, Argentinos Juniors 0.93 per match away
- Form: Banfield and Argentinos Juniors each recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Banfield30%
Draw32%
Argentinos Juniors39%
Double chance
Banfield or draw61%
Argentinos Juniors or draw70%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Banfield: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Argentinos Juniors: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Banfield: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Banfield 4-3-3 · Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 10 L. Gómez
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 18 F. Medina
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
- 40 D. Zalazar
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 9 G. Verón
- 27 T. Molina
Substitutes
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 77 T. Rodríguez Trogsar
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 21 L. Villegas
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 3 N. Paz
- 28 M. Hernández
- 19 L. Cano
- 37 R. Malanca
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 28 J. Gho
- 10 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 4 E. Godoy
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 23 M. Mendoza
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