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Platense – Lanús0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Platense
1.02
Total xG
2.30
Lanús
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Platense | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Guido Mainero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Felipe Peña Biafore on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 97% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Lanús won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Platense remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Table: Lanús is 6th with 24 points from 16 matches, Platense is 12th with 16 points from 16 matches
- Home/Away: Platense scores 0.64 goals per match at home in the league this season, Lanús 1.14 goals per match away
Risks
- xG: Lanús allowed 1.16 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.2 goals per match
- Head-to-head: 3 of the 4 matches between Platense and Lanús ended in a draw
All probabilities
Result
Platense28%
Draw31%
Lanús41%
Double chance
Platense or draw59%
Lanús or draw72%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: 87% of all goals in the second half (13 of 15, last 12 games)
- Lanús: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Platense: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 40% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 15)
- Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Platense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Platense 4-2-3-1 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 34 M. Mendia
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 5 I. Gómez
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 43 N. Retamar
- 18 B. Merlini
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 17 D. Medina
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 11 E. Salvio
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Substitutes
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 21 A. Lotti
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 4 A. Lagos
- 99 G. Lencina
- 6 E. Raggio
- 7 G. Mainero
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 10 D. Moreno
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 15 R. Loaiza Morelos
- 38 B. Acosta
- 42 G. Lobos
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