Match report →
Sarmiento – Barracas Central1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
1.07
Total xG
2.07
Barracas Central
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Jonathan Herrera on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kevin Jappert on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Both teams recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
- Defence: Sarmiento concede 0.86 goals per match at home in the league this season, Barracas Central 0.86 goals per match away
- Table: Barracas Central are 9th in the league with 21 points after 16 matches, Sarmiento are 11th with 19 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: Sarmiento recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 4 meetings with Barracas Central
- Attack: Sarmiento scored 1.6 goals per match in their last 5 matches, compared to 1.21 goals per match in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento35%
Draw34%
Barracas Central31%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw69%
Barracas Central or draw65%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.08 : 0.99, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sarmiento: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sarmiento with Julián Mavilla starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/17 games, last 28)
- Barracas Central: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sarmiento 3-4-2-1 · Barracas Central 4-4-2
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 19 J. Contrera
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 35 E. Rolón
- 10 I. Tapia
- 24 E. Taborda
- 34 N. Orsini
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
Substitutes
- 24 J. Herrera
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
- 23 W. Rivera
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 8 T. Porra
- 4 D. Martínez
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 33 G. Maroni
- 14 K. Jappert
- 2 N. Capraro
- 19 C. Arce
- 77 F. Bruera
- 5 D. Miloc
- 16 I. Guaraz
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