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Instituto – Deportivo Riestra1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.34
Total xG
2.03
Deportivo Riestra
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.7 season average) | −0.05 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Giuliano Cerato on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Antony Alonso on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alexander Díaz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Instituto won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Deportivo Riestra remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Instituto score 1.57 goals per match at home in the league, while Deportivo Riestra score 0.21 per match away
- Head-to-head: Instituto won 3 of the 4 meetings, while Deportivo Riestra won 1
Risks
- xG: Instituto generated 1.02 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.4 goals per match
- Defense: Deportivo Riestra concede 0.86 goals per match in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Instituto51%
Draw32%
Deportivo Riestra18%
Double chance
Instituto or draw82%
Deportivo Riestra or draw49%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.34 : 0.69, rounded up only from .916% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
12%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- Instituto: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Instituto: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 12 games)
- Instituto: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 20)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Deportivo Riestra 3-4-1-2
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Deportivo Riestra
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 24 F. Miño
- 2 C. Quintana
- 22 C. Paz
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 16 N. Watson
- 8 M. Céliz
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 9 G. Benegas
- 40 G. Obredor
- 29 M. Graneros
Substitutes
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 44 G. Cerato
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 23 J. Meli
- 21 T. González
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 19 J. Randazzo
- 12 I. López
- 27 J. Goitía
- 11 A. Díaz
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 1 I. Arce
- 3 E. Tovo
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 10 B. Sánchez
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