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Rosario Central – Huracán2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
1.80
Total xG
2.64
Huracán
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.77 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Leonardo Gil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Rosario Central is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw, while Huracán lost 2 of those games
- Home/Away: Rosario Central scored 1.5 goals per match at home in the league, while Huracán scored 0.81 away
- Tactics: Rosario Central averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, compared to 3.8 for Huracán
Risks
- Head-to-head: Huracán won all 3 previous meetings since 2024, most recently 3-1 in April 2026
- Defense: Huracán conceded 0.88 goals per match away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central59%
Draw26%
Huracán16%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw84%
Huracán or draw41%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.80 : 0.84, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rosario Central: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Rosario Central with Ángel Di María starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (21/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Huracán 4-3-3
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
- 17 J. Bisanz
Substitutes
- 10 F. Cervi
- 33 A. Soto
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 18 J. Fernández
- 38 D. Fernandez
- 24 J. Giménez
- 6 J. Komar
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 4 F. Vera
- 8 L. Gil
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 33 B. Barticciotto
- 46 F. Martínez
- 48 S. Raynelli
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