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San Lorenzo – Newell's Old Boys0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.10
Total xG
2.06
Newell's Old Boys
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Rodrigo Herrera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: San Lorenzo is 7th in the league with 22 points, Newell's Old Boys 14th with 15 points
- Home/Away: San Lorenzo scores 1 goal per game at home in the league, Newell's Old Boys concedes 1.57 per game away
Risks
- Form: Newell's Old Boys lost 1 of their last 5 matches with 2 wins, San Lorenzo lost 2 of their last 5 matches
- Attack: Newell's Old Boys generated 1.51 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo37%
Draw34%
Newell's Old Boys30%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw71%
Newell's Old Boys or draw63%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.10 : 0.96, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Lorenzo: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 62 G. Alassia
- 10 F. Gulli
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 38 F. Farías
- 9 A. Cuello
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 28 J. Russo
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 32 S. Solari
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Substitutes
- 27 M. Río
- 32 E. Herrera
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 36 D. Herrera
- 30 O. Arias
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 34 Máximo Simón Atrio
- 27 L. Gómez
- 33 W. Núñez
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 23 N. Goitea
- 4 A. Montero
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 24 F. Escobar
- 15 A. Soñora
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