Match report →
Banfield – Lanús1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.03
Total xG
2.39
Lanús
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.90 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Lanús won 4 of their last 5 matches, Banfield won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Table: Lanús is 6th in the league with 24 points from 16 matches, Banfield 12th with 18 points from 16 matches
- Defense: Lanús conceded 0.2 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Banfield 1.2 goals per match
Risks
- xG: Lanús allowed 1.29 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.2 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Banfield27%
Draw31%
Lanús43%
Double chance
Banfield or draw57%
Lanús or draw73%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.03 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
- Felipe Peña Biafore: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Lanús: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Banfield 4-3-3 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 10 L. Gómez
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 18 F. Medina
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
- 40 D. Zalazar
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 17 D. Medina
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 11 E. Salvio
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Substitutes
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 21 L. Villegas
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 3 N. Paz
- 28 M. Hernández
- 19 L. Cano
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
- 37 R. Malanca
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 15 R. Loaiza Morelos
- 38 B. Acosta
- 40 T. López
- 42 G. Lobos
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