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Central Cordoba SdE – Vélez Sarsfield0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Central Cordoba SdE
1.09
Total xG
2.32
Vélez Sarsfield
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Central Cordoba SdE | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Diego Barrera on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Vélez Sarsfield are 3rd in the league with 28 points from 16 matches, Central Cordoba SdE are 13th with 16 points
- Form: Central Cordoba SdE are winless in their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 losses), while Vélez Sarsfield won 2 of 5
- Defense: Vélez Sarsfield conceded 0.87 goals per match in 30 league games this season, Central Cordoba SdE 1.34 in 29
Risks
- Attack: Central Cordoba SdE scored 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 games, compared to 0.76 per match in the league
- Defense: Vélez Sarsfield conceded 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 games, compared to 0.87 per match in the league
All probabilities
Result
Central Cordoba SdE31%
Draw32%
Vélez Sarsfield38%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw63%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw69%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.09 : 1.23, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Central Cordoba SdE with Michael Santos starting: 1 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (20/7 games, last 29)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Central Cordoba SdE: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Central Cordoba SdE 5-3-2 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 42 J. Pignani
- 2 A. Maciel
- 32 N. Garrido
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 22 M. Vera
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
- 28 L. Sequeira
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 37 J. Policella
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Substitutes
- 13 J. Gómez
- 33 A. Moyano
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 7 D. Barrera
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 47 M. Cuitiño
- 41 Enzo Tiziano Ramirez Suarez
- 43 Ignacio Santillán
- 44 Kevin Ibañez
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
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