Match report →
Aldosivi – Belgrano1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Aldosivi
0.92
Total xG
2.13
Belgrano
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aldosivi | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.52 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Nicolás Gaitán not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ramiro Hernandes on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 90% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Belgrano have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Aldosivi suffered 4 losses
- Table: Belgrano sit 5th with 26 points from 16 matches, while Aldosivi are 14th with 8 points from 16 matches
- Home/Away: Aldosivi scored 0.71 goals per match in 14 home matches, Belgrano conceded 0.71 per match in 17 away matches
Risks
- Attack: Aldosivi scored 1.2 goals per match in their last 5 matches, in the league this season 0.69 per match
All probabilities
Result
Aldosivi26%
Draw33%
Belgrano41%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw59%
Belgrano or draw74%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.92 : 1.21, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
14%
0:1
13%
1:0
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Belgrano: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 2 goals (82', 90+5')
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Belgrano: 2.7 cards per game (28 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Aldosivi 4-4-2 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 28 S. Moya
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 13 F. Acevedo Fagúndez
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 24 F. Anso
- 9 N. Cordero
- 29 A. Vombergar
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 9 L. Passerini
Substitutes
- 23 I. Chicco
- 22 A. Sosa
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 4 R. González
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 13 B. Cufré
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 31 A. Fernández
- 21 M. Godoy
- 18 A. Chávez
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 5 S. Longo
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 45 A. Falcón
- 19 S. Gatti
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