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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Platense1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.21
Total xG
2.30
Platense
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.44 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Ezequiel Muñoz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Fermin Antonini not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Guido Mainero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 95% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes 0.79 goals per game at home in the league, Platense scores 0.93 away
- Form: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has 1 win in their last 5 games, Platense remains winless (2 draws, 3 losses)
- Table: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is 11th with 19 points from 16 games, Platense sits 12th with 16 points
Risks
- Attack: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scored just 1 goal in total in their last 5 games (0.2 per game)
- Away: Platense averages 0.93 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 0.6 at home
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza37%
Draw32%
Platense31%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw69%
Platense or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.21 : 1.09, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (18/8 games, last 29)
- Platense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Platense: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-1-4-1 · Platense 4-2-3-1
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 42 L. Carrera
- 3 M. Recalde
- 5 N. Barboza
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 30 E. Fernández
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 9 A. Módica
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 34 M. Mendia
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 5 I. Gómez
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 43 N. Retamar
- 18 B. Merlini
- 33 J. Gauto
- 99 G. Lencina
Substitutes
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 27 B. Armoa Núñez
- 36 I. Cortez
- 33 O. Andrada
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 25 M. Úbeda James
- 41 G. Patritti
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
- 17 F. Bussio
- 21 A. Lotti
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 4 A. Lagos
- 1 B. Bustos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 6 E. Raggio
- 7 G. Mainero
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 16 G. Togni
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