Match report →
Argentinos Juniors – Independiente Rivadavia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentinos Juniors
1.44
Total xG
2.46
Independiente Rivadavia
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentinos Juniors | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Tomás Molina on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Hernán López Muñoz on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Fabrizio Sartori on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luciano Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home form: Argentinos Juniors conceded 0.53 goals per game at home in 17 league matches
- Possession: Argentinos Juniors had 56.6% possession in the last 5 matches, Independiente Rivadavia 43.6% in 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia won 3 of 4 meetings against Argentinos Juniors, with 1 draw
- Table: Independiente Rivadavia are 1st with 34 points from 16 matches, Argentinos Juniors 3rd with 29 points from 16 matches
All probabilities
Result
Argentinos Juniors45%
Draw30%
Independiente Rivadavia25%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw75%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw55%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.44 : 1.02, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Álex Arce: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Argentinos Juniors: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Argentinos Juniors: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-2-3-1
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 9 G. Verón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 28 A. Vigo
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 13 A. Osella
- 3 J. Elordi
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 80 M. Reali
- 11 G. Ríos
- 10 M. Fernández
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
Substitutes
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 27 T. Molina
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 28 J. Gho
- 10 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 4 E. Godoy
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 23 M. Mendoza
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 20 A. Riep
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 45 L. Sábato
- 55 M. Salvo
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