Match report →
Barracas Central – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
1.29
Total xG
2.04
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | +0.08 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Nicolás Demartini not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kevin Jappert not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Barracas Central is 9th in the league with 21 points, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is 15th with 5 points
- Form: Barracas Central won 2 of their last 5 matches, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto lost 4 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Home: Barracas Central scores 0.93 goals per game at home in the league
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central48%
Draw32%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto20%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw80%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw52%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.30 : 0.75, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Barracas Central: 5 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (85', 87')
Lineups
Barracas Central 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-5-2
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 37 G. Campi
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 10 I. Tapia
- 35 E. Rolón
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 24 E. Taborda
- 34 N. Orsini
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 38 L. Herrera
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 31 M. Valenti
- 6 J. Antonini
- 10 T. González
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 17 G. Alanís
- 28 F. Cobos
- 77 I. Hesar
- 22 M. Valiente
Substitutes
- 23 W. Rivera
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 8 T. Porra
- 4 D. Martínez
- 6 R. Insúa
- 33 G. Maroni
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 2 N. Capraro
- 77 F. Bruera
- 5 D. Miloc
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 8 S. Rosane
- 12 F. Gualtieri
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 4 V. Fenoglio
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 3 L. Baños
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 27 J. Garro
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
- 20 B. Moyano
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →