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Tigre – Atlético Tucumán0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.42
Total xG
2.18
Atlético Tucumán
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Leandro Díaz on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: Tigre generated 1.58 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, Atlético Tucumán 0.94 xG per match
- Shots: Tigre averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Atlético Tucumán 3.4 per match
Risks
- Form: Tigre went winless in their last 5 matches with 4 losses
- Defense: Tigre conceded 2 goals per match in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Tigre51%
Draw30%
Atlético Tucumán18%
Double chance
Tigre or draw82%
Atlético Tucumán or draw49%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.42 : 0.76, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 12 total)
- Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Tigre: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Tigre 4-4-2 · Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 8 M. Garay
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 27 S. González
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 30 J. Domina
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 32 J. Infante
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 11 T. Serrago
- 32 J. Villalba
- 28 G. Martínez
- 4 V. Moreno
- 18 M. Fernández
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 26 L. Morales
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 9 L. Díaz
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 14 P. Canelo
- 5 J. Fernández
- 27 R. Granillo González
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