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Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.80
Total xG
2.63
Sarmiento
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.81x league average) | +1.08 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Maximiliano Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bautista Barros Schelotto not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jhon Rentería on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Gimnasia scores 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Sarmiento concedes 1.86 per game away
- Table: Gimnasia is 6th in the league with 26 points, Sarmiento is 11th with 19 points
- Defense: Sarmiento allowed 2.10 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Gimnasia has 1 win and 4 draws from their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata59%
Draw25%
Sarmiento15%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw85%
Sarmiento or draw41%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.80 : 0.83, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sarmiento: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sarmiento with Julián Mavilla starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (11/17 games, last 29)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)
- Sarmiento: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2 · Sarmiento 3-5-2
Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 18 M. Seoane
- 5 J. Miramon
- 17 L. Janson
- 8 I. Fernández
- 32 L. Torres
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 24 J. Herrera
Substitutes
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 39 F. Di Biasi
- 16 A. Max
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 34 Leonel Troncoso
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 26 Y. Arismendi
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
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