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River Plate – Racing Club1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
2.03
Total xG
2.82
Racing Club
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +1.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Sebastián Driussi on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lucas Martínez Quarta not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marcos Acuña not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Ulises Ortegoza on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: River Plate sits 2nd with 29 points from 16 matches, while Racing Club is 8th with 21 points from 16 matches
- Form: River Plate won 3 of its last 5 matches conceding 0.8 goals per match, while Racing Club conceded 1.4 per match
- Tactics: River Plate averaged 70.8% possession and 6.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches
Risks
- Home: River Plate conceded 1.00 goal per match at home in 19 league matches this season, compared to 0.71 away in 14 matches
- Head-to-head: Racing Club won 2 of the 3 direct duels since 2024, while River Plate won 1
All probabilities
Result
River Plate65%
Draw23%
Racing Club12%
Double chance
River Plate or draw88%
Racing Club or draw35%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.03 : 0.79, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Racing Club: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
River Plate 4-3-1-2 · Racing Club 4-3-1-2
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 3 F. Ortega
- 50 T. Andrada
- 6 A. Moreno
- 26 T. Galván
- 23 T. Almada
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 18 L. Beltrán
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 38 M. Martínez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 46 A. Tello
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 20 G. Lodico
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 9 A. Martínez
- 17 T. Conechny
Substitutes
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 9 S. Driussi
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
- 27 Santiago Espíndola
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 23 N. Colombo
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 32 L. Díaz
- 33 L. Pérez
- 40 F. Fraga
- 2 M. Pérez
- 42 G. Volpe
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