Match report →
Talleres Córdoba – Defensa y Justicia1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.23
Total xG
2.51
Defensa y Justicia
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.80 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Franco Cristaldo not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Both teams recorded an average of 54% possession in their last 5 matches
- Attack: With 1.23 to 1.28 expected goals (xG), the model expects a balanced match
Risks
- Form: Defensa y Justicia secured 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Talleres Córdoba 1 win
- Table: Talleres Córdoba is 4th with 26 points from 16 matches, Defensa y Justicia is 10th with 19 points
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba34%
Draw30%
Defensa y Justicia36%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw64%
Defensa y Justicia or draw66%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.23 : 1.28, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Defensa y Justicia: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 17)
- Talleres Córdoba: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Defensa y Justicia: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1 · Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 10 G. Baroni
- 11 V. Depietri
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 26 J. Lucco
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Substitutes
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 49 V. Dávila
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 15 J. Sforza
- 27 J. Gallard
- 26 M. Caceres
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 2 E. Lucero
- 10 A. Molinas
- 7 T. Pérez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
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