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Unión Santa Fe – Estudiantes3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.20
Total xG
2.35
Estudiantes
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.54 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Ignacio Malcorra on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fabricio Pérez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Santiago Núñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- xG: Unión Santa Fe averages 1.29 xG per match in the league this season, Estudiantes averages 1.32 xG per match
- Shots: Unión Santa Fe registered 16 shots per match in their last 5 matches, Estudiantes 16.6 shots per match
Risks
- Table: Estudiantes rank 1st in the league with 31 points from 16 matches, Unión Santa Fe are 8th with 21 points
- Form: Unión Santa Fe are winless in their last 5 matches with 4 losses, while Estudiantes registered 2 wins
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe35%
Draw31%
Estudiantes33%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw67%
Estudiantes or draw65%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.20 : 1.15, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 goals (83', 90', 90+4')
- Unión Santa Fe: 81% of all goals in the second half (13 of 16, last 12 games)
- Estudiantes with Adolfo Gaich starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/11 games, last 30)
- Unión Santa Fe: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Estudiantes 4-3-3
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 22 B. Cuello
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 25 C. Tarragona
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 20 E. Meza
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 24 T. Palacios
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 10 T. Palacios
- 21 L. Piovi
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 19 A. Gaich
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
Substitutes
- 23 A. Solari
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 33 I. Isla
- 5 F. Rojo
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 7 J. Sosa
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 4 S. Núñez
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 41 B. Sagües Barreiro
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