Match report →
Independiente – Boca Juniors0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
0.93
Total xG
2.45
Boca Juniors
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +0.78 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Matías Abaldo on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Lautaro Blanco not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Boca Juniors have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Independiente 1
- Table: Boca Juniors sit in 2nd with 30 points from 16 matches, Independiente in 5th with 24 points
- Away/Home: Boca Juniors score 1.6 goals per game away in the league this season, Independiente 1.29 at home
Risks
- Head-to-head: Boca Juniors failed to win any of the 3 meetings with Independiente (1 loss, 2 draws)
- Away: Boca Juniors concede 1.13 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 0.47 at home
All probabilities
Result
Independiente21%
Draw29%
Boca Juniors49%
Double chance
Independiente or draw51%
Boca Juniors or draw79%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.93 : 1.52, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:1
12%
0:0
10%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Boca Juniors: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Independiente 4-3-3 · Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
Independiente
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 36 S. Valdez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 5 N. Banegas
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 7 S. Montiel
- 6 L. Ávila
- 24 J. Palais
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 27 M. Braida
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Delgado
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 20 A. Velasco
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
Substitutes
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 22 F. Zavala
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 29 L. Godoy
- 33 R. Rey
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 2 F. Calderón
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 6 R. Battaglia
- 9 M. Giménez
- 32 A. Costa
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 53 J. Ruíz
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