Match report →
Defensa y Justicia – Independiente1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.54
Total xG
2.50
Independiente
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.52 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 29% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Defensa y Justicia won 3 of their last 5 matches, Independiente won 1
- Shots on target: Defensa y Justicia averaged 6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Independiente 3.2
Risks
- Table: Independiente ranks 5th with 24 points after 16 matches in the league, Defensa y Justicia 10th with 19 points
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia49%
Draw29%
Independiente22%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw78%
Independiente or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.54 : 0.96, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Defensa y Justicia: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Independiente 4-2-3-1
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 32 N. Roselli
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 19 D. Barbona
- 26 J. Lucco
- 9 L. Fernández
Independiente
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 36 S. Valdez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 5 N. Banegas
- 16 M. Curci
- 20 F. Cruz
- 7 S. Montiel
- 8 M. Meza
- 24 J. Palais
- 6 L. Ávila
Substitutes
- 99 J. Palavecino
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 10 A. Molinas
- 33 L. Souto
- 7 T. Pérez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 22 F. Zavala
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 29 L. Godoy
- 33 R. Rey
- 11 I. Machuca
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 2 F. Calderón
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