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Vélez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.39
Total xG
2.14
San Lorenzo
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: San Lorenzo averages 0.5 goals per game away in the league, while Vélez Sarsfield concedes 0.75 per game at home
- Table: Vélez Sarsfield is 3rd in the league with 28 points from 16 games, while San Lorenzo is 7th with 22 points
- Shots: Vélez Sarsfield recorded 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches, San Lorenzo 4 per game
Risks
- Defence: San Lorenzo has conceded 0.75 goals per game away in the league this season in 16 away games
- Head-to-head: Of 4 meetings between the teams, 2 ended in draws, with San Lorenzo winning 1 and Vélez Sarsfield 1
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield50%
Draw31%
San Lorenzo19%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw81%
San Lorenzo or draw50%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.39 : 0.75, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- San Lorenzo: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield with Matías Pellegrini starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (18/9 games, last 30)
- San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 4 of 12 games
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 37 J. Policella
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 30 O. Arias
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 10 F. Gulli
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 38 F. Farías
- 29 R. Auzmendi
- 9 A. Cuello
Substitutes
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 48 L.Feler
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 33 T. Villalba
- 27 M. Río
- 32 E. Herrera
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 36 D. Herrera
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 34 Máximo Simón Atrio
- 37 T. Perugini
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