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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Gimnasia La Plata1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.00
Total xG
2.32
Gimnasia La Plata
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Mauro Valiente not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Maximiliano Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bautista Barros Schelotto not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Gimnasia La Plata is unbeaten in its last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto lost 4 of them
- Attack: Gimnasia La Plata scored 1.28 goals per match in the league this season, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0.47 per match
- Shots: Gimnasia La Plata averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in 5 games, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3 per match
Risks
- Away: Gimnasia La Plata scored 1.06 goals per match away in the league this season and conceded 1.29 per match
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto26%
Draw31%
Gimnasia La Plata42%
Double chance
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw58%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw74%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.00 : 1.33, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (85', 87')
- Gimnasia La Plata: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 5-3-2 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 38 L. Herrera
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 6 J. Antonini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 10 T. González
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 17 G. Alanís
- 77 I. Hesar
- 11 M. Garnerone
Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 18 M. Seoane
- 5 J. Miramon
- 17 L. Janson
- 8 I. Fernández
- 29 A. Auzmendi
- 32 L. Torres
Substitutes
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 8 S. Rosane
- 12 F. Gualtieri
- 28 F. Cobos
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 4 V. Fenoglio
- 3 L. Baños
- 27 J. Garro
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
- 86 M. Pagliaricci
- 24 T. Escobar
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 39 F. Di Biasi
- 16 A. Max
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 34 Leonel Troncoso
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