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Estudiantes – Instituto3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.17
Total xG
2.29
Instituto
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| Adolfo Gaich on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Edwuin Cetré on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leandro González Pírez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tomás Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Tissera on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Season: Estudiantes scores 1.16 goals per match in the league, Instituto 1.27 per match
- Shots: Estudiantes averages 4.4 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Instituto 4.6 per match
Risks
- Form: Instituto has 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Estudiantes 1 win
- Table: Estudiantes is in 1st place with 31 points, Instituto in 9th place with 21 points
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes35%
Draw32%
Instituto33%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw67%
Instituto or draw65%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.17 : 1.12, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
10%
2:1
8%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- Instituto: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Estudiantes: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 goals (83', 90', 90+4')
- Instituto: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 19 total)
- Instituto: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 12 games)
- Estudiantes with Tiago Palacios starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/9 games, last 30)
Lineups
Estudiantes 4-2-3-1 · Instituto 3-4-3
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 4 S. Núñez
- 5 F. Rojo
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 21 L. Piovi
- 22 A. Castro
- 10 T. Palacios
- 32 C. Correa
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 9 G. Carrillo
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 9 F. Suárez
- 10 A. Luna
Substitutes
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 19 A. Gaich
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 7 J. Sosa
- 27 L. Alario
- 15 S. Arzamendia Duarte
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 20 E. Meza
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 17 M. Tissera
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 23 J. Meli
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