Match report →
Huracán – Tigre0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.02
Total xG
2.19
Tigre
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.48 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jordy Caicedo not in squad (14 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| César Ibáñez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Facundo Waller on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Ignacio Russo on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jabes Saralegui on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 66% available) |
Key factors
- Tactics: Tigre averaged 6 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Huracán 3.4 per game
- Attack: Tigre generated 1.59 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Tigre are winless in their last 5 matches with 1 draw and 4 losses, Huracán got 2 wins
- Table: Huracán sit 7th in the league with 22 points from 16 matches, Tigre are 10th with 20 points
All probabilities
Result
Huracán30%
Draw33%
Tigre38%
Double chance
Huracán or draw62%
Tigre or draw70%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.02 : 1.17, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigre: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
Lineups
Huracán 4-4-2 · Tigre 4-2-3-1
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 19 L. Lescano
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 8 L. Gil
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 33 B. Barticciotto
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 2 J. Laso
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 27 S. González
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 8 M. Garay
- 28 G. Martínez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 30 J. Domina
Substitutes
- 4 F. Vera
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 32 S. Meza
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 46 F. Martínez
- 48 S. Raynelli
- 51 M. Soto
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
- 11 T. Serrago
- 32 J. Villalba
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 18 M. Fernández
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 40 L. Minniti
- 26 L. Morales
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →