Match report →
Lanús – Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.83
Total xG
2.68
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.86 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Carlos Izquierdoz not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Besozzi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Luciano Cingolani on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ezequiel Muñoz not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Lanús is undefeated in their last 5 matches with 3 wins, while Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza suffered 3 defeats
- Home/Away: Lanús concedes 0.73 goals per game at home in the league, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1.6 away
- Table: Lanús ranks 6th in the league with 24 points from 16 matches, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 11th with 19 points
Risks
- Shots: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averaged 12 shots per game in the last 5 matches, Lanús 10.4 per game
All probabilities
Result
Lanús59%
Draw25%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza15%
Double chance
Lanús or draw85%
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw41%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.84 : 0.84, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 8 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (19/8 games, last 30)
- Lanús: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 16)
- Felipe Peña Biafore: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Lanús 4-4-2 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 11 E. Salvio
- 42 G. Lobos
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 42 L. Carrera
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 5 N. Barboza
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 30 E. Fernández
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 9 A. Módica
Substitutes
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 10 D. Moreno
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 15 R. Loaiza Morelos
- 38 B. Acosta
- 40 T. López
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 36 I. Cortez
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 33 O. Andrada
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 25 M. Úbeda James
- 41 G. Patritti
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