Match report →
Boca Juniors – River Plate1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.43
Total xG
2.71
River Plate
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.66x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Alan Velasco on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sebastián Driussi on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Boca Juniors with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, River Plate with 3 wins
- Defense: Boca Juniors concede 0.47 goals per match at home in the league this season
- Attack: Boca Juniors generated 1.80 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2 goals per match
Risks
- xG: River Plate generated 1.85 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per match
- Away: River Plate concede 0.71 goals per match away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors39%
Draw29%
River Plate32%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw68%
River Plate or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.43 : 1.28, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-3-3 · River Plate 4-3-1-2
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Delgado
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 22 S. Villa Cano
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 50 T. Andrada
- 44 L.Silva
- 26 T. Galván
- 23 T. Almada
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 18 L. Beltrán
Substitutes
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 20 A. Velasco
- 6 R. Battaglia
- 32 A. Costa
- 27 M. Braida
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 9 S. Driussi
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
- 27 Santiago Espíndola
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →