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Independiente Rivadavia – Banfield3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
1.52
Total xG
2.47
Banfield
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +1.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Matías Fernández on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Luciano Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Independiente Rivadavia scores 2.12 goals per game at home in the league this season, Banfield concedes 1.47 away
- Table: Independiente Rivadavia ranks 1st in the league with 34 points from 16 games, Banfield is 12th with 18 points
- Shots on target: Independiente Rivadavia recorded 4.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Banfield 2.8
Risks
- Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia recorded no wins in 4 head-to-head meetings, Banfield won 2 with 2 draws
- Form: Independiente Rivadavia won only 1 of their last 5 games, Banfield lost only 1 of their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia49%
Draw29%
Banfield22%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw78%
Banfield or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.52 : 0.94, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Álex Arce: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Banfield: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Banfield: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 · Banfield 4-3-3
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 13 A. Osella
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 8 L. Bucca
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 10 L. Gómez
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 18 F. Medina
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
- 40 D. Zalazar
Substitutes
- 10 M. Fernández
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 36 E. Bonifacio
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 28 A. Vigo
- 80 M. Reali
- 23 L. Díaz
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 21 L. Villegas
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 3 N. Paz
- 19 L. Cano
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
- 37 R. Malanca
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