Match report →
Racing Club – Aldosivi2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.47
Total xG
2.40
Aldosivi
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Ulises Ortegoza on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Cordero not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Racing Club is 8th in the league with 21 points from 16 games, Aldosivi is 14th with 8 points
- Away: Aldosivi concedes 1.8 goals per game in 15 away league games this season
- Head-to-head: Racing Club won 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings against Aldosivi, with 1 draw
Risks
- Home: Racing Club scored 1.07 goals per game in 15 home league games this season
- Form: Racing Club and Aldosivi both won 2 of their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club48%
Draw30%
Aldosivi22%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw78%
Aldosivi or draw52%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 0.93, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Racing Club: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Racing Club 4-3-3 · Aldosivi 4-4-1-1
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 38 M. Martínez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 46 A. Tello
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 20 G. Lodico
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 9 A. Martínez
- 17 T. Conechny
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 28 S. Moya
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 13 B. Cufré
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 24 F. Anso
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 29 A. Vombergar
Substitutes
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 23 N. Colombo
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 32 L. Díaz
- 33 L. Pérez
- 7 L. Vergara
- 40 F. Fraga
- 22 D. Torres
- 2 M. Pérez
- 42 G. Volpe
- 23 I. Chicco
- 22 A. Sosa
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 4 R. González
- 5 N. Linares
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 14 E. López
- 2 L. Sigali
- 18 A. Chávez
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