Match report →
Belgrano – Barracas Central2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
1.29
Total xG
2.14
Barracas Central
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 14% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Norberto Briasco not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Orsini on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Enzo Taborda on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Belgrano is 5th with 26 points after 16 games, while Barracas Central is 9th with 21 points
- Home/Away: Belgrano scored 1.31 goals per game at home in the league this season, Barracas Central 0.87 per game away
- Defense: Belgrano conceded 0.88 goals per game at home in the league this season, Barracas Central 0.87 per game away
Risks
- Head-to-head: All 4 previous meetings between Belgrano and Barracas Central ended in a draw
- Form: Barracas Central recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, scoring 1.6 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano45%
Draw32%
Barracas Central23%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw77%
Barracas Central or draw55%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.29 : 0.86, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
0:1
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Barracas Central: 5 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Barracas Central: 55% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 11)
- Belgrano: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 2 goals (82', 90+5')
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Barracas Central: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · Barracas Central 4-2-3-1
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 5 S. Longo
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 9 L. Passerini
Barracas Central
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 13 R. Barrios
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 10 I. Tapia
- 5 D. Miloc
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 8 T. Porra
- 33 G. Maroni
- 77 F. Bruera
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 3 A. Sporle
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 15 R. Tulián
- 45 A. Falcón
- 19 S. Gatti
- 62 G. Martínez
- 35 E. Rolón
- 34 N. Orsini
- 38 J. Insúa
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 4 D. Martínez
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 24 E. Taborda
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 2 N. Capraro
- 19 C. Arce
- 16 I. Guaraz
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