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Newell's Old Boys – Unión Santa Fe1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newell's Old Boys
1.18
Total xG
2.33
Unión Santa Fe
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newell's Old Boys | Unión Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Rodrigo Herrera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Newell's scores 1.07 goals per game at home in the league, Unión Santa Fe 1.29 goals per game away
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings, Newell's Old Boys won 1, Unión Santa Fe won 2, with 1 draw
Risks
- Standings: Unión Santa Fe is 8th with 21 points in 16 games, Newell's Old Boys is 14th with 15 points in 16 games
- Defense: Newell's Old Boys conceded 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 games, Unión Santa Fe conceded 1.8 goals per game in 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Newell's Old Boys35%
Draw32%
Unión Santa Fe34%
Double chance
Newell's Old Boys or draw66%
Unión Santa Fe or draw65%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.15, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe: 84% of all goals in the second half (16 of 19, last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eric Ramírez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1 · Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 23 N. Goitea
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 28 J. Russo
- 27 L. Gómez
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 32 S. Solari
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 33 I. Isla
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 22 B. Cuello
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 19 M. Estigarribia
Substitutes
- 33 W. Núñez
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 29 M. Esponda
- 3 M. Luciano
- 4 A. Montero
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
- 23 A. Solari
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 7 F. Fragapane
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 27 J. Koike
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
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