Match report →
Sarmiento – Rosario Central1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
0.88
Total xG
2.59
Rosario Central
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +1.35 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Julián Contrera not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jhon Rentería not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mauricio Martínez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Santiago Salle on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Franco Ibarra not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Rosario Central sits 4th with 28 points from 16 games, while Sarmiento is 11th with 19 points
- Head-to-head: Rosario Central won all 4 meetings against Sarmiento between 2024 and 2026
- Shots on target: Rosario Central averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Sarmiento 2.6 per game
Risks
- Defense: Sarmiento conceded 0.87 goals per game at home in 15 home games in the league this season
- xG: Rosario Central generated 1.55 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 2.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento18%
Draw27%
Rosario Central55%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw45%
Rosario Central or draw82%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
0:1
From xG 0.88 : 1.70, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rosario Central: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Sarmiento: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sarmiento with Julián Mavilla starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/17 games, last 30)
- Rosario Central with Ángel Di María starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (21/6 games, last 30)
- Rosario Central: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Rosario Central: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Sarmiento 4-3-3 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 20 U. Giménez
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 5 M. García
- 15 C. Zabala
- 23 E. Giménez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 11 G. González
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 10 F. Cervi
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Substitutes
- 36 R. Maisterra
- 24 J. Herrera
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 26 Y. Arismendi
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 16 M. Martínez
- 7 P. Magnín
- 8 S. Salle
- 9 D. Churín
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 1 A. Werner
- 33 A. Soto
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 18 J. Fernández
- 24 J. Giménez
- 19 S. Segovia
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 35 L. Ramos López
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 2 S. Zaracho
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