Match report →
Atlético Tucumán – Argentinos Juniors1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético Tucumán
0.87
Total xG
2.03
Argentinos Juniors
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético Tucumán | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Ramiro Ruiz Rodríguez not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tomás Molina on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Argentinos Juniors are 3rd with 29 points, Atlético Tucumán are 13th with 14 points
- Form: Argentinos Juniors won 3 of their last 5 matches, Atlético Tucumán won 1 in 5 matches
- Defence: Argentinos Juniors concede 0.76 goals per match in the league this season, Atlético Tucumán 1.1 per match
Risks
- Away: Argentinos Juniors conceded 1.07 goals per match away in the league this season and scored 0.93 per match
- xG: Argentinos Juniors allowed 1.21 xG per match in their last 5 matches, but conceded 0.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Atlético Tucumán26%
Draw34%
Argentinos Juniors40%
Double chance
Atlético Tucumán or draw60%
Argentinos Juniors or draw74%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
xG score
0:1
From xG 0.87 : 1.15, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
10%
0:2
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 11 total)
- Argentinos Juniors: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Argentinos Juniors: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 12)
- Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1 · Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 32 J. Infante
- 5 J. Fernández
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 31 L. Godoy
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 9 L. Díaz
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 4 E. Godoy
- 20 S. Prieto
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 9 G. Verón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
Substitutes
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 2 L. Paunero
- 19 L. Vega
- 14 P. Canelo
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 34 M. Carrizo
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 27 T. Molina
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 28 J. Gho
- 10 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 13 S. Gianini
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 23 M. Mendoza
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →