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Gimnasia La Plata – Belgrano2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.20
Total xG
2.39
Belgrano
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | +0.71 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Nacho Fernández on the bench (5 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Alexis Steimbach not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Pedro Silva Torrejón not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Gimnasia La Plata and Belgrano both have 26 points from 16 games in the league in 6th and 5th place
- Tactics: Gimnasia La Plata averaged 4.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Belgrano 5
Risks
- Form: Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, Belgrano got 2 wins
- Defence: Belgrano conceded 0.72 goals per game in 18 away games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata35%
Draw31%
Belgrano34%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw66%
Belgrano or draw65%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.20 : 1.18, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Belgrano: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 2 goals (82', 90+5')
- Gimnasia La Plata: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Gimnasia La Plata: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1
Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 H. Castillo Moreno
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 22 M. Melluso
- 18 M. Seoane
- 5 J. Miramon
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 17 L. Janson
- 29 A. Auzmendi
- 32 L. Torres
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 5 S. Longo
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 9 L. Passerini
Substitutes
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 8 I. Fernández
- 39 F. Di Biasi
- 16 A. Max
- 35 J. Cortazzo
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 43 M. Ojeda
- 34 Leonel Troncoso
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 22 N. Fernández
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 3 A. Sporle
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 45 A. Falcón
- 19 S. Gatti
- 62 G. Martínez
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