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Talleres Córdoba – Estudiantes1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.21
Total xG
2.33
Estudiantes
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Matías Catalán not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Giovanni Baroni on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Edwuin Cetré on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tomás Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Talleres Córdoba scores 0.94 goals per game at home in the league, Estudiantes 0.8 per game away
- Form: Talleres Córdoba won 1 of their last 5 matches, Estudiantes won 1 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Estudiantes sit 1st in the league with 31 points from 16 matches, Talleres Córdoba are 4th with 26 points
- Attack: Estudiantes scored 2 goals per game and conceded 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba36%
Draw32%
Estudiantes32%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw68%
Estudiantes or draw64%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.20 : 1.13, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 goals (83', 90', 90+4')
- Estudiantes with Tiago Palacios starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (13/8 games, last 30)
- Estudiantes: 3.2 cards per game (36 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 44 S. Fernández
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 26 M. Caceres
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 11 V. Depietri
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 5 F. Rojo
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 21 L. Piovi
- 22 A. Castro
- 10 T. Palacios
- 32 C. Correa
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 19 A. Gaich
Substitutes
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 49 V. Dávila
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 27 J. Gallard
- 10 G. Baroni
- 29 D. Ribera Bruun
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 16 J. Salas
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 7 J. Sosa
- 27 L. Alario
- 15 S. Arzamendia Duarte
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 20 E. Meza
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 52 B. Kociubinski
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