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Banfield – Atlético Tucumán2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Banfield
1.15
Total xG
2.14
Atlético Tucumán
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Banfield | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Nicolás Laméndola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franco Nicola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Banfield scores 1.2 goals per game at home in the league, Atlético Tucumán 0.93 per game away
- Table: Banfield has 18 points from 16 games in the league, Atlético Tucumán 14 points from 16 games
Risks
- Attack: Atlético Tucumán scored 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 games, Banfield 1.0 per game
- Shots on target: Atlético Tucumán averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Banfield 2.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
Banfield38%
Draw33%
Atlético Tucumán29%
Double chance
Banfield or draw71%
Atlético Tucumán or draw62%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.15 : 0.98, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Tucumán: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 12 total)
- Banfield: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Atlético Tucumán: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Banfield: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Banfield: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Banfield 4-3-3 · Atlético Tucumán 4-3-3
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 10 L. Gómez
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 18 F. Medina
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
- 40 D. Zalazar
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 26 C. Ferreira Ñamandu
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 32 J. Infante
- 31 L. Godoy
- 5 J. Fernández
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 14 P. Canelo
Substitutes
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 21 L. Villegas
- 3 N. Paz
- 28 M. Hernández
- 19 L. Cano
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
- 70 J. Arteaga Arboleda
- 9 L. Díaz
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 10 F. Nicola Albanell
- 21 I. Galván
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 4 T. Jung
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 34 M. Carrizo
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