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Boca Juniors – Defensa y Justicia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
1.92
Total xG
2.86
Defensa y Justicia
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Leonel Benjamín Flores on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Barbona on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 81% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Boca Juniors conceded 0.44 goals per game at home in the league, Defensa y Justicia 1.33 away per game
- Form: Boca Juniors are undefeated in their last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw
- Table: Boca Juniors sit 2nd in the league after 16 games, Defensa y Justicia rank 10th after 16 games
Risks
- Form: Defensa y Justicia recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their last 5 games
- Defence: Defensa y Justicia allowed 1.09 xG per game across 5 games with xG data, but conceded 0.6 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors59%
Draw24%
Defensa y Justicia17%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw83%
Defensa y Justicia or draw41%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 0.94, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Defensa y Justicia: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Defensa y Justicia: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Boca Juniors: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-3-3 · Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Delgado
- 20 A. Velasco
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 22 S. Villa Cano
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 26 J. Lucco
- 22 M. Porcel
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Substitutes
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
- 32 A. Costa
- 10 T. Aranda
- 27 M. Braida
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 19 L. Flores
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 10 A. Molinas
- 33 L. Souto
- 19 D. Barbona
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 41 R. Gagliardi
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