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Aldosivi – River Plate0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Aldosivi
0.85
Total xG
2.49
River Plate
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aldosivi | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +0.84 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Nicolás Cordero not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Montiel not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lucas Martínez Quarta not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Table: River Plate sit 2nd in the league with 29 points from 16 games, while Aldosivi are 14th with 8 points
- Form: River Plate won 3 of their last 5 games, while Aldosivi lost 4 of their last 5 games
Risks
- Defense: Aldosivi conceded 0.93 goals per game at home in the league this season, compared to 1.81 away
All probabilities
Result
Aldosivi18%
Draw27%
River Plate55%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw45%
River Plate or draw82%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
0:1
From xG 0.85 : 1.65, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
11%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (15 points lost)
- River Plate: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Aldosivi 4-2-3-1 · River Plate 4-3-1-2
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 28 S. Moya
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 13 B. Cufré
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 22 A. Sosa
- 29 A. Vombergar
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 20 G. González Apud
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 21 M. Acuña
- 50 T. Andrada
- 27 Santiago Espíndola
- 26 T. Galván
- 23 T. Almada
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 18 L. Beltrán
Substitutes
- 23 I. Chicco
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 5 N. Linares
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 24 F. Anso
- 14 E. López
- 38 Mateo Sebastián Vales
- 34 S. Filippini
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 33 E. Centurión
- 9 S. Driussi
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 43 V. Lucero
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