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Unión Santa Fe – Vélez Sarsfield2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.18
Total xG
2.38
Vélez Sarsfield
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.06 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Unión Santa Fe scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, Vélez Sarsfield averages 1.47 away
- Defense: Unión Santa Fe concedes 1.07 goals per game at home in the league, Vélez Sarsfield concedes 0.93 away
Risks
- Table: Vélez Sarsfield is 3rd with 28 points from 16 games, Unión Santa Fe is 8th with 21 points
- Form: Vélez Sarsfield has 4 losses in 32 league games this season, Unión Santa Fe has 13 in 33 games
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe34%
Draw31%
Vélez Sarsfield35%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw65%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw66%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.20, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
9%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe: 83% of all goals in the second half (15 of 18, last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield with Matías Pellegrini starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (19/8 games, last 30)
- Eric Ramírez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 33 I. Isla
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 22 B. Cuello
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 19 M. Estigarribia
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 37 J. Policella
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Substitutes
- 23 A. Solari
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 7 F. Fragapane
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
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